Group Stage - 1
Mexico
vs
07:00 PM UTC
Thursday, June 11
South Africa
Estadio Azteca · Mexico City
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
25%
Mexico
50%
Draw
25%
South Africa
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Mexico: 0pts, 0 played
- South Africa: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 1 historical matches
- Mexico host nation advantage
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Mexico
Market: 62%Model: 25%
Draw
Market: 23%Model: 50%
South Africa
Market: 15%Model: 26%
Market efficiency: 94%6 sources · Updated 04:38 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Mexico | Draw | South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| FanDuel | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Pinnacle | 61% | 23% | 15% |
| Betfair | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| William Hill | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| DraftKings | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Our Model | 25% | 50% | 26% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Mexico
Market rates Mexico 39% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 28% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
South Africa
Our model rates South Africa 11% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.