Group Stage - 1
USA
vs
01:00 AM UTC
Saturday, June 13
Paraguay
SoFi Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
31%
USA
45%
Draw
24%
Paraguay
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- USA: 0pts, 0 played
- Paraguay: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 3 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
USA
Market: 47%Model: 31%
Draw
Market: 27%Model: 45%
Paraguay
Market: 26%Model: 24%
Market efficiency: 93%6 sources · Updated 04:38 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | USA | Draw | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| FanDuel | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Pinnacle | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Betfair | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| William Hill | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| DraftKings | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Our Model | 31% | 45% | 24% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Draw
Our model rates Draw 19% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
USA
Market rates USA 17% higher than our model
Largest divergence: William Hill · Confidence: high
Paraguay
Market rates Paraguay 4% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.