Group Stage - 1
Brazil
vs
10:00 PM UTC
Saturday, June 13
Morocco
MetLife Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
22%
Brazil
49%
Draw
29%
Morocco
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Brazil: 0pts, 0 played
- Morocco: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 1 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Brazil
Market: 59%Model: 22%
Draw
Market: 24%Model: 49%
Morocco
Market: 17%Model: 28%
Market efficiency: 93%6 sources · Updated 04:38 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Brazil | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| FanDuel | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Pinnacle | 58% | 25% | 16% |
| Betfair | 59% | 24% | 18% |
| William Hill | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| DraftKings | 59% | 25% | 17% |
| Our Model | 22% | 49% | 28% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Brazil
Market rates Brazil 39% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 27% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: William Hill · Confidence: high
Morocco
Our model rates Morocco 13% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.