Group Stage - 1
Netherlands
vs
08:00 PM UTC
Sunday, June 14
Japan
·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
31%
Netherlands
45%
Draw
24%
Japan
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Netherlands: 0pts, 0 played
- Japan: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 1 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Netherlands
Market: 47%Model: 31%
Draw
Market: 26%Model: 45%
Japan
Market: 27%Model: 24%
Market efficiency: 93%6 sources · Updated 04:38 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Netherlands | Draw | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| FanDuel | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Pinnacle | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Betfair | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| William Hill | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| DraftKings | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Our Model | 31% | 45% | 24% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Draw
Our model rates Draw 20% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Netherlands
Market rates Netherlands 17% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Japan
Market rates Japan 3% higher than our model
Largest divergence: BetMGM · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.