Group Stage - 2
Canada
vs
10:00 PM UTC
Thursday, June 18
Qatar
BC Place ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
46%
Canada
29%
Draw
25%
Qatar
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 46% / 29% / 25%
- Canada: 0pts, 0 played
- Qatar: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 1 historical matches
- Canada host nation advantage
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Canada
Market: 46%Model: 46%
Draw
Market: 29%Model: 29%
Qatar
Market: 25%Model: 25%
Market efficiency: 51%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Canada | Draw | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Betfair | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| Our Model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Canada
Market rates Canada 14% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Qatar
Market rates Qatar 9% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Draw
Our model rates Draw 6% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.