Group Stage - 2
Ecuador
vs
12:00 AM UTC
Sunday, June 21
Curaçao
Arrowhead Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
54%
Ecuador
26%
Draw
20%
Curaçao
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 54% / 26% / 21%
- Ecuador: 0pts, 0 played
- Curaçao: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Ecuador
Market: 54%Model: 54%
Draw
Market: 26%Model: 26%
Curaçao
Market: 21%Model: 21%
Market efficiency: 51%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Ecuador | Draw | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Betfair | 29% | 35% | 35% |
| Our Model | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Ecuador
Market rates Ecuador 25% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Curaçao
Our model rates Curaçao 15% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 10% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.