Group Stage - 2
New Zealand
vs
01:00 AM UTC
Monday, June 22
Egypt
BC Place ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
26%
New Zealand
30%
Draw
44%
Egypt
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 26% / 30% / 44%
- New Zealand: 0pts, 0 played
- Egypt: 0pts, 0 played
- H2H: 1 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
New Zealand
Market: 26%Model: 26%
Draw
Market: 30%Model: 30%
Egypt
Market: 44%Model: 44%
Market efficiency: 50%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | New Zealand | Draw | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 18% | 26% | 56% |
| Betfair | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| Our Model | 26% | 30% | 44% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Egypt
Our model rates Egypt 12% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
New Zealand
Market rates New Zealand 8% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Draw
Market rates Draw 4% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.