Group Stage - 2
Spain
vs
04:00 PM UTC
Sunday, June 21
Saudi Arabia
Mercedes-Benz Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
57%
Spain
24%
Draw
19%
Saudi Arabia
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 57% / 24% / 19%
- Spain: 0pts, 0 played
- Saudi Arabia: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Spain
Market: 57%Model: 57%
Draw
Market: 24%Model: 24%
Saudi Arabia
Market: 19%Model: 19%
Market efficiency: 52%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Spain | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Betfair | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Our Model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Spain
Market rates Spain 25% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Saudi Arabia
Our model rates Saudi Arabia 14% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 12% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.