Group Stage - 2
Uruguay
vs
10:00 PM UTC
Sunday, June 21
Cape Verde Islands
Hard Rock Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
45%
Uruguay
29%
Draw
26%
Cape Verde Islands
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 45% / 29% / 25%
- Uruguay: 0pts, 0 played
- Cape Verde Islands: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Uruguay
Market: 45%Model: 45%
Draw
Market: 29%Model: 29%
Cape Verde Islands
Market: 25%Model: 25%
Market efficiency: 54%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Uruguay | Draw | Cape Verde Islands |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Betfair | 26% | 37% | 38% |
| Our Model | 45% | 29% | 25% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Uruguay
Market rates Uruguay 20% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Cape Verde Islands
Our model rates Cape Verde Islands 12% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Draw
Our model rates Draw 8% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.