Group Stage - 2
Argentina
vs
05:00 PM UTC
Monday, June 22
Austria
·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
46%
Argentina
29%
Draw
25%
Austria
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 46% / 29% / 25%
- Argentina: 0pts, 0 played
- Austria: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Argentina
Market: 46%Model: 46%
Draw
Market: 29%Model: 29%
Austria
Market: 25%Model: 25%
Market efficiency: 50%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Argentina | Draw | Austria |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Betfair | 32% | 34% | 34% |
| Our Model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Argentina
Our model rates Argentina 14% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Austria
Market rates Austria 9% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Draw
Our model rates Draw 5% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.