Group Stage - 2
Norway
vs
12:00 AM UTC
Tuesday, June 23
Senegal
MetLife Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
39%
Norway
30%
Draw
31%
Senegal
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 39% / 30% / 31%
- Norway: 0pts, 0 played
- Senegal: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
Norway
Market: 39%Model: 39%
Draw
Market: 30%Model: 30%
Senegal
Market: 31%Model: 31%
Market efficiency: 50%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Norway | Draw | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Betfair | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Our Model | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Norway
Market rates Norway 6% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Draw
Our model rates Draw 3% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.