Group Stage - 2
England
vs
08:00 PM UTC
Tuesday, June 23
Ghana
Gillette Stadium ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
49%
England
27%
Draw
24%
Ghana
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (100% weight): 49% / 27% / 24%
- England: 0pts, 0 played
- Ghana: 0pts, 0 played
Market Probability Analysis2 sources
England
Market: 49%Model: 49%
Draw
Market: 27%Model: 27%
Ghana
Market: 24%Model: 24%
Market efficiency: 53%2 sources · Updated 05:28 PM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | England | Draw | Ghana |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Betfair | 27% | 36% | 36% |
| Our Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
England
Our model rates England 22% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Ghana
Our model rates Ghana 13% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: high
Draw
Market rates Draw 9% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.