Round of 16
Paraguay
vs
09:00 PM UTC
Saturday, July 4
France
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
18%
Paraguay
13%
Draw
69%
France
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (50% weight): 6% / 14% / 80%
- Paraguay: 4pts, 3 played
- France: 9pts, 3 played
- Paraguay form: WDWL
- France form: WWWW
- H2H: 1 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Paraguay
Market: 6%Model: 18%
Draw
Market: 14%Model: 13%
France
Market: 80%Model: 70%
Market efficiency: 96%6 sources · Updated 11:23 AM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Paraguay | Draw | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7% | 14% | 80% |
| Pinnacle | 6% | 14% | 81% |
| DraftKings | 5% | 14% | 81% |
| Betfair | 5% | 14% | 82% |
| William Hill | 7% | 16% | 77% |
| FanDuel | 5% | 14% | 81% |
| Our Model | 18% | 13% | 70% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Paraguay
Our model rates Paraguay 13% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
France
Market rates France 12% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.