Round of 16
Mexico
vs
12:00 AM UTC
Monday, July 6
England
Estadio Banorte · Mexico City
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
37%
Mexico
26%
Draw
37%
England
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (50% weight): 31% / 31% / 38%
- Mexico: 9pts, 3 played
- England: 7pts, 3 played
- Mexico form: WWWW
- England form: WWDW
- Mexico host nation advantage
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Mexico
Market: 31%Model: 37%
Draw
Market: 31%Model: 26%
England
Market: 38%Model: 36%
Market efficiency: 95%6 sources · Updated 10:19 AM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Mexico | Draw | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 31% | 30% | 38% |
| Pinnacle | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| BetMGM | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| William Hill | 32% | 32% | 37% |
| Betfair | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| DraftKings | 32% | 31% | 38% |
| Our Model | 37% | 26% | 36% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Mexico
Our model rates Mexico 6% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Pinnacle · Confidence: medium
Draw
Market rates Draw 5% higher than our model
Largest divergence: William Hill · Confidence: medium
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.