Round of 16
USA
vs
12:00 AM UTC
Tuesday, July 7
Belgium
Lumen Field ·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
37%
USA
25%
Draw
38%
Belgium
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (50% weight): 38% / 28% / 34%
- USA: 6pts, 3 played
- Belgium: 5pts, 3 played
- USA form: WLWW
- Belgium form: WWDD
- H2H: 2 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
USA
Market: 38%Model: 37%
Draw
Market: 28%Model: 25%
Belgium
Market: 34%Model: 38%
Market efficiency: 95%6 sources · Updated 10:19 AM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | USA | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | 38% | 29% | 34% |
| Betfair | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Pinnacle | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| DraftKings | 38% | 27% | 34% |
| BetMGM | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| William Hill | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Our Model | 37% | 25% | 38% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Belgium
Our model rates Belgium 4% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Draw
Market rates Draw 3% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.