Round of 16
Portugal
vs
07:00 PM UTC
Monday, July 6
Spain
·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
29%
Portugal
24%
Draw
47%
Spain
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (50% weight): 23% / 27% / 50%
- Portugal: 5pts, 3 played
- Spain: 7pts, 3 played
- Portugal form: WDWD
- Spain form: WWWD
- H2H: 9 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Portugal
Market: 23%Model: 29%
Draw
Market: 27%Model: 24%
Spain
Market: 50%Model: 48%
Market efficiency: 95%6 sources · Updated 10:25 AM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Portugal | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 24% | 27% | 50% |
| FanDuel | 23% | 27% | 51% |
| Pinnacle | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| BetMGM | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Betfair | 23% | 27% | 51% |
| DraftKings | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Our Model | 29% | 24% | 48% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Portugal
Our model rates Portugal 6% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: medium
Draw
Market rates Draw 3% higher than our model
Largest divergence: William Hill · Confidence: low
Spain
Market rates Spain 3% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.