Round of 16
Argentina
vs
04:00 PM UTC
Tuesday, July 7
Egypt
·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
59%
Argentina
19%
Draw
22%
Egypt
Model confidence:medium
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (50% weight): 70% / 20% / 10%
- Argentina: 9pts, 3 played
- Egypt: 5pts, 3 played
- Argentina form: WWWW
- Egypt form: WDWD
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
Argentina
Market: 70%Model: 59%
Draw
Market: 20%Model: 19%
Egypt
Market: 10%Model: 22%
Market efficiency: 95%6 sources · Updated 08:51 AM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | Argentina | Draw | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 70% | 20% | 11% |
| FanDuel | 71% | 20% | 9% |
| DraftKings | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Pinnacle | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| William Hill | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Betfair | 71% | 20% | 9% |
| Our Model | 59% | 19% | 22% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Egypt
Our model rates Egypt 13% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Argentina
Market rates Argentina 12% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.