Quarter-finals
France
vs
08:00 PM UTC
Thursday, July 9
Morocco
·
Win ProbabilityPre-match model
55%
France
21%
Draw
24%
Morocco
Model confidence:high
Model Inputs
- Market consensus (50% weight): 61% / 25% / 15%
- France: 9pts, 3 played
- Morocco: 7pts, 3 played
- France form: WWWWW
- Morocco form: WWWWD
- H2H: 1 historical matches
Market Probability Analysis6 sources
France
Market: 61%Model: 55%
Draw
Market: 25%Model: 21%
Morocco
Market: 15%Model: 24%
Market efficiency: 95%6 sources · Updated 09:55 AM
Implied Probability by Source
| Source | France | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| FanDuel | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Pinnacle | 61% | 24% | 14% |
| Betfair | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| William Hill | 60% | 25% | 16% |
| DraftKings | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Our Model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
Model vs. Market Divergence
Morocco
Our model rates Morocco 10% higher than market consensus
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: high
France
Market rates France 7% higher than our model
Largest divergence: Betfair · Confidence: medium
Draw
Market rates Draw 4% higher than our model
Largest divergence: FanDuel · Confidence: low
Divergence signals indicate where our statistical model assigns different probability than the aggregate market. This is analytical data only.